EUR/USD stumbles as Eurozone falters; dollar rebounds

The dollar regained its footing on Tuesday, clawing back from a one-month low following a slip in U.S. bond yields, as the euro took a hit from grim economic news, indicating a potential downturn in the eurozone economy.

Survey data released today revealed an unexpected downturn in eurozone business activity, hinting at a looming recession across the region. Particularly disconcerting was Germany’s performance, with both the service sector and manufacturing now in contractionary territory.

The euro EUR/USD, which initially showed strength, reversed course, falling by 0.43% to $1.0624 after the data release, having previously traded 0.1% higher at $1.0684.

Jane Foley, Head of FX Strategy at Rabobank, highlighted the vulnerabilities of the eurozone and German economies compared to the United States, citing factors like China’s slowdown, escalating energy costs, and demographic challenges. These factors, she noted, are likely to limit any substantial falls in the dollar.

The drop in the euro boosted the dollar index (DXY), which measures the U.S. currency against its major peers. The index rebounded by 0.33% to 105.95, after touching 105.35, the lowest since September 22.

Global financial markets have been in turmoil due to a surge in U.S. bond yields, reaching levels not seen since 2007. This surge, coupled with a recent social media post by prominent hedge fund investor Bill Ackman, contributed to fluctuations in the dollar index. Ackman’s announcement about closing his bet against longer-dated bonds and geopolitical concerns influenced the bond yields, which in turn affected the dollar.

The dollar also saw a minor increase against the Japanese yen, rising by less than 0.1% to 149.83 yen USD/JPY, edging closer to the 150 mark that often triggers concerns about possible government intervention to stabilize the Japanese currency. Earlier in the session, the dollar had traded lower against the yen.

Investors are now awaiting key economic data, with U.S. gross domestic product figures scheduled for Thursday, followed by closely monitored inflation data on Friday. These releases could potentially lead to more turbulence in both bond yields and currency markets.