Shares in Experian (LON: EXPN) fell sharply on Wednesday, making the data and technology group one of the biggest fallers on the FTSE 100, despite reporting the strongest financial results in its history.
The stock has now shed approximately 30% over the past year, a striking disconnect from a set of numbers that chief executive Brian Cassin described as delivering at “the upper end of our expectations.”
Total revenue for the year to 31 March 2026 grew 12% to $8.45bn, while benchmark revenue from ongoing activities reached $8.43bn, up 13% at actual rates and 11% at constant currency.
Benchmark EBIT climbed 15% to $2.41bn and statutory pre-tax profit rose 26% to $1.95bn, helped by top-line growth and lower restructuring costs. Benchmark EPS growth of 15% came in ahead of guidance on operating leverage, with return on capital employed holding firm at 17.2%.
Organic revenue growth of 8% for the full year came in at the top of Experian’s guidance range, with the fourth quarter accelerating to 9%, underscoring the momentum behind the business heading into the new financial year.
Alongside the results, Experian announced a fresh $1bn share repurchase programme running through to June 2027, following $725m of buybacks already executed during FY26.
The full-year dividend was lifted 11% to 69.25 US cents per share, reflecting management’s confidence in the group’s cash generation and balance sheet flexibility.
The market’s reaction centred on FY27 guidance, where Experian set organic revenue growth of 6-8% – with the midpoint of 7% coming in a point below the City consensus of 8%, according to Goldman Sachs.
Total revenue growth of 8-11% and EBIT margin expansion of around 50 basis points were both consistent with the group’s medium-term framework, and Cassin guided to double-digit benchmark EPS growth for the year ahead, but the organic growth midpoint was enough to unsettle investors.
Broker Panmure Liberum noted that FY26 results were “in-line on profits and slightly below consensus on revenue,” with the UK’s 2% organic growth the weakest of Experian’s main regions.
Both Panmure and Stifel pointed to AI disruption concerns as a key driver of the share price decline, with Panmure highlighting that the stock had pulled back 19% during a specific leg of the sell-off “due to fears of disruption from AI, which contrasts with EPS CAGR of 13-14% over FY26-27E.” Stifel called the update “good” and pointed to the buyback and outlook as positives, but acknowledged the market remains focused on the AI risk overhang.
Cassin took a deliberately cautious line on FY27, citing “macroeconomic uncertainties linked to the Middle East” as the reason for prudent guidance, while insisting he expects “another year of strong growth.” The group’s next trading update, covering the first quarter of FY27, is scheduled for 16 July 2026.
Despite the early sell-off, shares recovered through the session to end the day broadly flat.