The FTSE 100 was up 41 points at 10,644 by mid-morning, while the FTSE 250 added 169 points to 22,374, though neither index is showing much conviction. With US–Iran talks set to begin in Islamabad this weekend, investors appear firmly in wait-and-see mode.
Oil majors drag, housebuilders and retailers pick up the slack
BP and Shell were both down again on Friday morning, and their combined weight on the index is keeping a lid on gains, with the offset coming from housebuilders and retailers who had a bruising few weeks during the conflict.
Barratt Redrow and Persimmon are each up around 0.8%, while Burberry has gained 2.3% and Next is up 1%.
If the ceasefire holds and oil stays below $100, the Bank of England has less reason to tighten further, and that feeds directly into mortgage costs and consumer spending.
North Sea oil tells a different story
Brent futures fell sharply on Wednesday’s ceasefire news, but physical North Sea crude is hitting record highs, with buyers in the spot market still paying well above futures prices – a sign that actual supply remains tighter than the headline numbers suggest.
The ceasefire is already looking shaky
Wednesday’s announcement sent the FTSE 100 up more than 2.5% and briefly pushed Brent below $93 a barrel, but by Thursday the mood had soured after Iran’s parliament speaker said the US and Israel had already broken three terms of Tehran’s 10-point proposal and Trump returned to posting threats.
The FTSE 100 slipped 0.3% on Thursday and the FTSE 250 dropped 1.1%, with retailers and smaller domestically focused companies leading the declines.
IMF warning and US inflation data add to the pressure
The IMF’s managing director told global policymakers on Thursday that a month of Middle East trade disruption will feed through into lower growth and higher inflation, with the hit felt hardest by smaller, energy-dependent economies.
US March CPI data is due later today, expected at around 3.3% – the highest since May 2024 – though analysts say the core reading, which strips out food and energy, is the number that will actually move markets, since it will show whether price pressures are spreading beyond petrol into the broader economy.